Table of Contents
Japan Faces Potential $1.81 Trillion Economic Loss from Megaquake
Economic Impact and Damage Estimates
Japan’s economy could suffer losses of up to $1.81 trillion in the event of a long-anticipated megaquake off its Pacific coast. The disaster could trigger devastating tsunamis, collapse hundreds of buildings, and potentially result in approximately 300,000 fatalities, according to a government report released on Monday.
The expected economic damage of 270.3 trillion yen, nearly half of Japan’s total gross domestic product (GDP), marks a significant increase from the previous estimate of 214.2 trillion yen. The revision accounts for inflationary pressures and updated terrain and ground data, which have expanded the anticipated flood areas, as outlined in the Cabinet Office report.
High Probability of a Megaquake
Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. The government estimates an 80% chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring along the Nankai Trough, a highly active seismic zone.
Worst-Case Scenario Predictions
Under the worst-case scenario, based on a potential magnitude 9 earthquake in the Nankai Trough, Japan could face the following consequences:
- Evacuees: 1.23 million people, or approximately 1% of the country’s total population.
- Fatalities: Up to 298,000 people could lose their lives due to tsunamis and building collapses, especially if the quake occurs late at night during winter.
The Nankai Trough: A Major Seismic Threat
The Nankai Trough is a 900 km (600 miles) seabed zone off Japan’s southwest Pacific coast. It marks the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The accumulated tectonic strain in this region suggests that a megaquake could occur approximately once every 100 to 150 years.
Recent Seismic Warnings
In the previous year, Japan issued its first-ever megaquake advisory, warning of a “relatively higher chance” of a magnitude 9 quake in the Nankai Trough. This alert followed a magnitude-7.1 earthquake that occurred at the edge of the trough.
Lessons from the 2011 Disaster
A magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011 triggered a devastating tsunami and led to the triple reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power plant in northeast Japan. That disaster resulted in more than 15,000 deaths, underscoring the catastrophic potential of another megaquake.
Preparedness and Risk Mitigation
Given the substantial risks, the government and disaster agencies continue to develop infrastructure reinforcements and emergency response plans. However, the latest estimates highlight the urgent need for further proactive measures to minimize human and economic losses.
“Japan Faces Potential $1.81 Trillion Economic Loss from Megaquake” “Japan Faces Potential $1.81 Trillion Economic Loss from Megaquake” “Japan Faces Potential $1.81 Trillion Economic Loss from Megaquake”