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Russia Cautions the United States Against Potential Nuclear Testing Under Trump
Rising Tensions and Arms Control Challenges
Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has cautioned against the United States resuming nuclear testing, signaling Moscow’s readiness to consider its own options in response. He described Washington’s policy as “extremely hostile,” emphasizing that Russia would act to ensure its security and send politically significant messages if necessary.
This comes amid the broader collapse of Cold War-era arms control agreements. In 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin formally withdrew Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), aligning the country’s position with that of the U.S., which has signed but not ratified the treaty.
Modernization and Testing Concerns
Major nuclear powers—Russia, the United States, and China—are all modernizing their arsenals. Some experts fear a return to nuclear testing, which has been dormant among leading powers since the 1990s. During Donald Trump’s presidency, discussions about resuming U.S. nuclear tests were reported, raising concerns about a new testing era.
Putin has indicated that Russia would consider nuclear testing if the U.S. resumed its tests. This development adds to anxieties about a potential arms race as strategic signaling intensifies among global powers.
Historical Context of Nuclear Testing
From the first nuclear detonation in 1945 to the signing of the CTBT in 1996, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted globally:
- United States: 1,032 tests
- Soviet Union: 715 tests
Since the Soviet Union’s last test in 1990, post-Soviet Russia has abstained from nuclear testing. The United States conducted its last test in 1992, followed by China and France in 1996. Other nations, including India, Pakistan, and North Korea, have conducted tests in subsequent years.
Global Nuclear Arsenal Overview
The United States and Russia dominate the global nuclear arsenal:
- Russia: 5,580 warheads
- United States: 5,044 warheads
- China: Approximately 500 warheads
Together, Russia and the United States hold about 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons, maintaining significant superiority over other nuclear-armed nations.
Lowering the Nuclear Strike Threshold
Recent adjustments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine reflect the escalating risks. Putin has expanded the scenarios under which Russia might deploy nuclear weapons, citing broader threats, including conventional strikes deep inside Russian territory, such as those allegedly involving U.S.-made missiles in Ukraine.
The Potential Resumption of Testing
Resuming nuclear tests by the world’s largest nuclear powers would mark a dangerous shift. It could dismantle decades of international restraint, destabilize global security, and heighten the risks of nuclear conflict. As tensions rise, the global community faces renewed challenges to maintaining arms control and reducing the threat of nuclear war.