Ray Dalio Warns US Is Near Recession Amid Trade War

Ray Dalio Warns US Is Near Recession Amid Trade War

Trade War Pushing the U.S. Toward Economic Decline

Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, has warned that the United States is on the verge of a recession due to the ongoing trade war.

Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, Dalio was asked whether the trade conflict—particularly with China—could push the U.S. into a recession, commonly defined as a significant decline in economic output.

“I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said.

Tariff Confusion Disrupts Global Supply Chains

The U.S. administration’s evolving tariff plans have added to market volatility. Although the tariffs were initially aimed at several countries, last week saw an abrupt shift, with a 90-day pause granted for many nations—excluding China.

Dalio described the situation as “very disruptive,” likening the effect of the tariffs to “throwing rocks into the production system.”

Broader Economic Risks Beyond Trade

Dalio also voiced concern over broader structural and geopolitical risks, including rising U.S. debt levels, the growing federal budget deficit, and intensifying global tensions.

“We’re having profound changes in the world order,” he said. “If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power… how that’s handled could produce something that is much worse than a recession.”

Potential for a Crisis Worse Than 2008

Drawing comparisons to previous financial crises, Dalio referenced the economic shocks of 1971 and 2008. He warned that the current combination of factors could lead to a situation even more severe than those historical downturns—especially if multiple risks converge at once.

“Ray Dalio Warns US Is Near Recession Amid Trade War” “Ray Dalio Warns US Is Near Recession Amid Trade War”