German Intelligence Report Suggests High Likelihood of COVID-19 Lab Leak

German Intelligence Report Suggests High Likelihood of COVID-19 Lab Leak

BND Assesses 80%-90% Probability of Wuhan Lab Accident

Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), assessed in 2020 that there was an 80% to 90% probability that the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic accidentally leaked from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).

Gain-of-Function Research and Safety Violations

The BND based its assessment on indications that the WIV conducted gain-of-function experiments—research that modifies viruses to become more transmissible to humans. The intelligence service also found evidence of multiple safety violations at the lab.

Intelligence Operation and Confidential Findings

The findings, derived from an intelligence operation code-named “Saaremaa” and publicly available data, were commissioned by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office but were never published. The report was later shared with the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in the autumn of 2024.

CIA Updates Its Stance on COVID-19 Origins

In January 2025, the CIA revised its position, stating that a laboratory leak was “more likely than a natural origin” but assigned “low confidence” to this conclusion. This suggests that while the lab leak theory is plausible, the supporting evidence remains inconclusive.

China Denies Lab Leak Allegations

China’s government has consistently denied claims that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory accident. Authorities maintain that the Wuhan Institute of Virology never conducted gain-of-function research on coronaviruses and was not involved in the creation or release of the virus. Chinese officials have also accused U.S. intelligence agencies of politicizing the investigation.

Origins of COVID-19 Remain Unresolved

The debate over the origins of COVID-19 continues, with both the natural transmission and laboratory leak theories still under consideration. The lack of definitive evidence and limited cooperation from Chinese authorities continue to prevent a conclusive determination.

“German Intelligence Report Suggests High Likelihood of COVID-19 Lab Leak” “German Intelligence Report Suggests High Likelihood of COVID-19 Lab Leak”