Table of Contents
UNCTAD Warns Global Economic Growth to Slow to 2.3% in 2025
Deceleration Marks a Recessionary Trend
The global economy is projected to grow by just 2.3% in 2025, according to a new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This marks a notable slowdown from the 2.8% growth in 2024 and places the world on what the agency calls a “recessionary path.”
UNCTAD noted that even before the COVID-19 pandemic, global growth was already subdued. The current figures represent an even more significant weakening.
Trade Tensions Fuel Economic Uncertainty
The slowdown is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions and rising global policy uncertainty. Financial markets have reacted negatively in April following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of broad new tariffs on many countries.
Although some of the proposed tariffs were paused, the administration implemented much higher duties on China—reaching 145%. These actions have intensified global economic uncertainty.
Growing Concerns of U.S. Recession
UNCTAD also pointed to rising fears of a potential recession in the United States, where investor anxiety has increased due to the unpredictability of trade policy. The report warns that:
“The implementation of successive rounds of restrictive trade measures and geo-economic confrontation carry the risks of severe disruptions to border-crossing production lines and international trade flows, in turn pulling down economic activity globally.”
Investment and Hiring Delayed Amid Policy Uncertainty
The report highlights that 2025 is shaping up to be the most uncertain year for policy in the 21st century. Companies across the globe are responding by delaying investment and hiring, further dampening growth prospects.
Call to Shield the Poorest Economies
UNCTAD has called on the U.S. administration to exclude the smallest and poorest countries from reciprocal tariffs, arguing that such exclusions would have minimal impact on American trade objectives while providing relief to vulnerable economies.
“UNCTAD Warns Global Economic Growth to Slow to 2.3% in 2025” “UNCTAD Warns Global Economic Growth to Slow to 2.3% in 2025”